Cutler (Harvard and NBER) et al. on the slowdown in medical spending growth among the elderly
"Seniors' Health Costs May Be Moderating But The Need For Long-Term Care May Be Growing" - Forbes. 2/19/2019.
"In the study published in the February edition of the journal Health Affairs, Harvard University health economist David Cutler and his co-authors calculated that the per beneficiary growth rate of Medicare spending slowed substantially from 1992-2012. Until 2004, program spending per enrollee rose by 3.8 percent annually. From 2005-2012, it grew by only 1.1 percent.
Overall Medicare spending grew much faster, largely because so many more people turned 65 and enrolled in the program. But spending for each beneficiary grew far more slowly than many predicted. By 2012, actual Medicare spending was about $3,000 less than forecast."